Applicability of models to predict phosphorus losses in drained fields: a review.

Most phosphorus (P) modeling studies of water quality have focused on surface runoff loses. However, a growing number of experimental studies have shown that P losses can occur in drainage water from artificially drained fields. In this review, we assess the applicability of nine models to predict this type of P loss. A model of P movement in artificially drained systems will likely need to account for the partitioning of water and P into runoff, macropore flow, and matrix flow. Within the soil profile, sorption and desorption of dissolved P and filtering of particulate P will be important. Eight models are reviewed (ADAPT, APEX, DRAINMOD, HSPF, HYDRUS, ICECREAMDB, PLEASE, and SWAT) along with P Indexes. Few of the models are designed to address P loss in drainage waters. Although the SWAT model has been used extensively for modeling P loss in runoff and includes tile drain flow, P losses are not simulated in tile drain flow. ADAPT, HSPF, and most P Indexes do not simulate flow to tiles or drains. DRAINMOD simulates drains but does not simulate P. The ICECREAMDB model from Sweden is an exception in that it is designed specifically for P losses in drainage water. This model seems to be a promising, parsimonious approach in simulating critical processes, but it needs to be tested. Field experiments using a nested, paired research design are needed to improve P models for artificially drained fields. Regardless of the model used, it is imperative that uncertainty in model predictions be assessed.

Designing cost efficient buffer zone programs: An application of the FyrisSKZ tool in a Swedish catchment.

Riparian buffer zones are the only measure which has been used extensively in Sweden to reduce phosphorus losses from agricultural land. This paper describes how the FyrisSKZ web tool can be used to evaluate allocation scenarios using data from the Svärta River, an agricultural catchment located in central Sweden. Three scenarios are evaluated: a baseline, a uniform 6-m-wide buffer zone in each sub-catchment, and an allocation of areas of buffer zones to sub-catchments based on the average cost of reduction. The total P reduction increases by 30 % in the second scenario compared to the baseline scenario, and the average reduction per hectare increases by 90 % while total costs of the program fall by 32 %. In the third scenario, the average cost per unit of reduction (163 kg P(-1)) is the lowest of the three scenarios (58 % lower than the baseline) and has the lowest total program costs.

Estimating reduction of nitrogen leaching from arable land and the related costs.

The EU Water Framework Directive will require river-basin management plans in order to achieve good ecological status and find the most cost-efficient nitrogen (N) leaching abatement measures. Detailed scenario calculations based on modeling methods will be valuable in this regard. This paper describes the approach and an application with a coefficient method based on the simulation model SOILNDB for quantification of N leaching from arable land and for prediction of the effect of abatement scenarios for the Rönneå catchment (1900 km2) in southern Sweden. Cost calculations for the different measures were also performed. The results indicate that the individual measures-cover crop and spring plowing, late termination of ley and fallow, and spring application of manure-would only reduce N leaching by between 5% and 8%. If all measures were combined and winter crops replaced by their corresponding spring variants, a 21% reduction in N leaching would be possible. However, this would require total fulfillment of the suggested measures.

Climate change impact on water quality: model results from southern Sweden.

Starting from six regional climate change scenarios, nitrogen leaching from arable-soil, water discharge, and nitrogen retention was modeled in the Rönneå catchment. Additionally, biological response was modeled in the eutrophic Lake Ringsjön. The results are compared with similar studies on other catchments. All scenarios gave similar impact on water quality but varied in quantities. However, one scenario resulted in a different transport pattern due to less-pronounced seasonal variations in the hydrology. On average, the study shows that, in a future climate, we might expect: i) increased concentrations of nitrogen in the arable root zone (+50%) and in the river (+13%); ii) increased annual load of nitrogen from land to sea (+22%) due to more pronounced winter high flow; moreover, remote areas in the catchment may start to contribute to the outlet load; iii) radical changes in lake biochemistry with increased concentrations of total phosphorus (+50%), total nitrogen (+20%), and planktonic algae such as cyanobacteria (+80%).